My guest for Episode 100 is David Wilkie, CBE, FFA, FIA, FSS, FIMA, Hon D Sc, Hon D Math, Chairman at InQA Limited.

The theme for the episode is 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 - 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮.

David and I covered the following topics in 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮 of this historic episode:⁣

✅ Modeling uncertainty within insurance, finance, and risk mgmt
✅ Shortcomings of the Black-Scholes option pricing model
✅ The origins and evolution of the Wilkie Model for economic variables
✅ Realistic disaster scenarios for marine insurance 
✅ The financial crisis, agency risk, and model hazard 
✅ Helping to shape actuarial standards and practice globally 
✅ David’s new unreleased research paper 

𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮 Time Markers

1:25: Random walk hypothesis and modern financial economics. 

2:49: Unit-linked life insurance policies and connection to share price uncertainty. 

6:30: Foundations of the first Wilkie Model (retail prices, dividends, dividend yields, and long-term interest rates). 

8:40: Limitations of Black-Scholes option pricing model assumptions (share price, transactions costs, and hedging constraints).

13:25: The key innovation for the first Wilkie Model (incorporating stochastic framework, variability, variable interrelations, and autoregressive methods).

16:30: The second Wilkie Model (short-term interest rates, property, property yields, and foreign exchange rates).

19:05: Index-linked yields and modifying long-term interest rate assumptions.

22:02: Incorporating company earnings and payout ratios (dividend payout and price/earnings) into Wilkie Model.

23:56: Realistic disaster scenarios, evaluating extreme losses for oil industry, and Lloyd’s syndicate as-if reserves.

30:16: Incorporating parameter uncertainty into Wilkie Model (hyper model approach).

32:51: Using fatter tail distributions (Normal, hyperbolic, and Laplace) for variables with extreme values and high kurtosis.

38:06: Transparency challenges around economic scenario generation. 

39:03: Packaging of mortgages leading up to 2008 financial crisis and resulting implications. 


42:32: Misaligned incentives in corporate taxation (interest 
payment deductions).   

46:33: Involvement with actuarial and scientific organizations. 

50:30: Approved directive for life insurance valuation principles to address country-level disconnects.

52:26: Research that David hasn’t done yet but intends to do. 

If you are an actuary interested in research, modeling, and programming, you want to listen to this.

My Website: maverickactuary.com