As of the past 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other major weather reporting agencies have issued key updates on tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. While no named hurricanes are currently active, several systems are being closely monitored for development as the season shifts toward its historically busiest months. A broad area of low pressure located in the central tropical Atlantic, roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, has gained some organization. According to the NHC’s latest update, there is a medium chance—about 40 percent—of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression over the next seven days. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for intensification, with intermittent bursts of convection observed, but upper-level wind shear may limit sustained strengthening in the near term.

Closer to the U.S. coastline, an area of disorganized showers and storms off the southeastern Florida coast is being tracked. Though tropical development is not expected from this system due to strong wind shear and interaction with land, forecasters caution that localized flooding and gusty winds could affect portions of South Florida and the Keys through tomorrow, particularly in low-lying areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) Miami office has issued a flood watch for coastal and urban zones, urging residents to monitor weather alerts.

Along the Gulf Coast, a stalled frontal boundary has led to persistent heavy rainfall in parts of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall through late Thursday, with potential flash flooding in urban areas already saturated from recent downpours. In addition, elevated tide levels continue along parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastlines due to persistent onshore flow and lunar high tides. The National Ocean Service reported minor to moderate coastal flooding in tidal regions of New Jersey and Delaware during this morning’s high tide cycle.

Looking ahead, meteorologists are focusing on the eastern Atlantic for early signs of more robust tropical waves forecast to emerge off the African coast late this week. With sea surface temperatures trending above average in the Main Development Region and wind shear forecast to ease, conditions may become increasingly favorable for tropical cyclone formation moving into early July. The next scheduled tropical weather outlook from the NHC will provide further clarity as the Atlantic hurricane season begins to ramp up.