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The podcast for those who want to stay informed about financial markets, presented by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics at Kairos Partners SGR.
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18 MAR 2025 · In this episode:
- The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq-100 indices have undergone a significant correction, declining by 10% and 15%, respectively. While such movements are not unusual in market history, the speed of the downturn and the weakness of the Magnificent 7 have caught investors off guard. Rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty has increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 40%.
- The global market is showing a clear divergence: while U.S. indices are struggling, the Hang Seng is up 20%, and the DAX has outperformed the Nasdaq by 26%. Capital inflows into Europe have been significant in the early weeks of the year, driven by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the search for better economic prospects outside the United States.
- Three key events could shape markets in the coming months: the escalation of trade tensions with Trump’s tariff expansion, Germany’s tax reform, which could unlock €900 billion in investments, and efforts to redefine geopolitical balances in Ukraine. Additionally, investors are closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its interest rate decisions.
Overall, the global market is experiencing a phase of high volatility and geographical rebalancing. While Europe and China are attracting new investments, uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies and macroeconomic risks call for a cautious and selective approach to seize the best opportunities.
4 MAR 2025 · In this episode:
- The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with declines in consumer confidence, retail sales, and the housing sector. Gold is outperforming, while AI stocks face corrections—Nvidia dropped 7.7% after its quarterly results, signaling increased volatility.
- Europe continues to outperform the U.S., supported by capital inflows and signs of economic recovery. In Germany, Merz is pushing for tax reforms and a strengthening of common defense. A rebound in the German economy could benefit mid and small caps, especially if positive developments emerge regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
- The U.S. is imposing new tariffs, impacting the automotive industry and other sectors. Markets are assessing whether this is a negotiating tactic or a definitive measure. The idea of a potential “Trump put” to support equities is gaining traction, while investors remain cautious about global economic prospects.
Overall, markets are navigating a phase of heightened uncertainty. Europe is showing positive signals, but geopolitical tensions and U.S. weakness call for a targeted strategy to seize opportunities.
18 FEB 2025 · In this episode:
- The Eurostoxx 50 has recorded a significant rise (+13% since December), outperforming the S&P 500 thanks to a broader and more diversified rally across sectors and stocks, supported by high trading volumes. However, liquidity remains a critical issue, especially for mid and small caps.
- The Mag7 are underperforming due to massive investments in artificial intelligence. The Tech and AI sectors are also expanding geographically, with China and Europe increasingly involved. This could remain a dominant theme in 2025.
- The market is influenced by developments such as negotiations between Trump and Putin on Ukraine reconstruction, the German elections, and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. Attention is focused on the EU’s potential response and the sustainability of growth in a highly volatile environment.
Overall, the European market is experiencing strong momentum, supported by favorable macroeconomic dynamics, expanding investments, and global trends like AI. However, geopolitical uncertainties and the risk of volatility require a cautious and selective approach to seize emerging opportunities effectively.
4 FEB 2025 · In this episode:
- After months of passive outflows in the US, investors are rediscovering the European market. The Eurostoxx50 has had one of the best starts to the year in history, with broad-based gains. Macro and systematic funds, previously short on Europe, are now moderately overweight, while single-stock volatility is creating opportunities for stock pickers.
- The announcement of DeepSeek in China triggered a sell-off in the AI sector, with Nvidia losing $600 billion in a single day. The market later reacted more rationally, recognizing technological progress as positive and reaffirming the strong dominance of the US. The event highlighted the importance of diversification in AI investments.
- Earnings season is showing resilient numbers, especially in Europe, where 55% of companies have beaten expectations. The ECB has cut interest rates, while Powell remains cautious, awaiting Trump’s policy decisions. The market is pricing in at least three more rate cuts by year-end, as inflation cools down.
The start of the year confirms renewed interest in Europe, with growth prospects supported by reforms and investments. The environment remains volatile, but active investors may find opportunities by balancing risk and reward in an ever-evolving market.
21 JAN 2025 · In this episode:
- Europe breaks out of a prolonged sideways phase, with the Eurostoxx 50 nearing historic highs and outperforming the S&P 500, marking one of the strongest starts in the past 20 years. The luxury sector is driving the rally, supported by high levels of short positions.
- In the United States, the "Mag7" are now weighing down the indices, with Apple and Nvidia experiencing significant declines. However, signs of change are emerging, with the S&P 500 equal-weight index outperforming and greater market participation being observed.
- Markets remain focused on inflation and interest rates. The decline in yields and early positive earnings data provide encouraging signals, but the environment remains challenging due to high public debt and pressure from rising commodity prices.
With the start of Trump’s new presidential term in the United States and evolving geopolitical dialogues, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of significant change. It will be essential to adopt a selective and dynamic approach, seizing opportunities in undervalued areas like Europe while maintaining caution in the face of volatility.
8 JAN 2025 · In this episode:
- 2024 concluded with impressive performances for the S&P 500, which gained over +60% in two years. However, leadership remained concentrated, and the equal-weight market showed significant disparity.
- ETFs dominated the landscape, supporting mega-cap stocks in key sectors such as Artificial Intelligence, energy transition, and demographics. Meanwhile, the dollar gained 6% against the euro, and Bitcoin attracted significant volumes, reflecting growing diversification.
- 2025 may bring greater convergence among global markets, but volatility is set to increase. Growth will be moderate, in a context shaped by Trumponomics policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and inflation-related challenges.
The new year will require a more dynamic investment approach, with particular attention to opportunities outside the United States. Factors such as reforms in Europe and stimulus measures in China could enhance risk-reward ratios. Investors will need to balance risks and opportunities in an evolving landscape.
The podcast for those who want to stay informed about financial markets, presented by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics at Kairos Partners SGR.
Information
| Author | Kairos Partners SGR |
| Organization | Kairos Partners SGR |
| Categories | Business , Investing , Business News |
| Website | www.kairospartners.com |
| kairospod@gmail.com |
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