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Redefining Energy - Tech, a channel of the award-winning Redefining Energy podcast, features deep and broad conversations between global decarbonization leaders and technologists and host Michael Barnard. His informed perspectives...
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Redefining Energy - Tech, a channel of the award-winning Redefining Energy podcast, features deep and broad conversations between global decarbonization leaders and technologists and host Michael Barnard.
His informed perspectives on energy, industry and transportation enable him to have intense conversations with brilliant and knowledgeable people.
You’ll be informed, stimulated and amused.
show less
His informed perspectives on energy, industry and transportation enable him to have intense conversations with brilliant and knowledgeable people.
You’ll be informed, stimulated and amused.
20 NOV 2024 · In this second part of the episode, Michael Raynor and Michael Barnard offer an in-depth analysis of the comparison between hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric buses, focusing on key findings and discrepancies in a recent CUTRIC study.
Barnard critically examines issues related to replacement cycles, carbon pricing, refuelling facilities and individual bus complexity. He highlights the study’s failure to account for technological advancements in batteries, such as decreasing costs and improving lifespans, which position battery electric buses as a more sustainable and cost-effective solution.
Raynor digs into financial projections and the challenges of managing multiple bus technologies in transit systems like Brampton’s. He applies his expertise related to scenario-based planning, gained in his Harvard DBA and published in his 2007 book, The Strategy Paradox, pointing out flaws in CUTRIC’s use of point estimates without error bars. Raynor notes the complexity involved in maintaining hydrogen buses, both in terms of infrastructure and organizational demands, compared to simpler battery systems. He raises concerns about Brampton’s decision to move forward with a potentially expensive and inefficient hydrogen pilot, citing a $1.1 billion discrepancy caused by timing assumptions in hydrogen bus deployment.
Raynor also explores how the study’s reliance on discounting future costs skews financial comparisons between the two technologies. He discusses the need for carbon emissions to be integrated into transit planning decisions and contrasts CUTRIC’s analysis with the EU’s more sophisticated approach to carbon pricing.
The episode concludes with Raynor’s personal reflection on the difficulties of tackling climate challenges while underscoring the importance of rigorous evaluation processes in transit planning. Raynor and Barnard call for Brampton’s transit proposals to undergo third-party reviews and improved quality control to ensure transparency and better decision-making.
6 NOV 2024 · In this episode, host Michael Barnard engages in an enlightening conversation with Michael Raynor, co-author of The Innovator’s Solution and an expert in carbon reduction strategies. Raynor shares his personal journey into sustainability, the evolution of his focus on decarbonization, and his current work developing innovative solutions for addressing corporate carbon challenges. A key topic in the discussion is the Raynor’s new firm, S3 Markets, which emphasizes the need to decarbonize upstream commodities to meet net zero commitments. Rayner highlights the difficulty corporations face in managing Scope 3 emissions and suggests shifting from traditional carbon offsets to “insets,” where companies pool small investments to make a meaningful impact. This approach targets the 80-90 high-emission commodities responsible for the bulk of industrial emissions, which make up 15% of global GDP.
The conversation takes a practical turn as Raynor discusses Mississauga’s hydrogen bus pilot program. He recounts how he identified potential issues with the initiative and reached out directly to the city’s mayor and council. His insights led to an invitation to present his findings to the Mississauga City Council on October 30th.
The conversation turns to Barnard’s dive into the CUTRIC (Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium) in advancing urban transit decarbonization through research and policy recommendations, as well as some red flags.
Barnard and Raynor explore the financial and environmental trade-offs between hydrogen and battery-electric buses. Barnard provides a critical analysis of data from California and the EU’s JIVE program, showing that hydrogen buses come with significant costs for refuelling infrastructure and maintenance. Comparatively, for the cost of five hydrogen buses, municipalities could procure twelve battery-electric buses, making the latter more attractive both financially and environmentally.
The episode wraps up with a closer look at CUTRIC’s recent report for Brampton, where Barnard identifies questionable assumptions about hydrogen system costs. One factor alone, the cost assumption for gray hydrogen could have a $200 million swing, dwarfing the $10 million variance called out justifying a blended hydrogen + battery electric fleet instead of a battery electric only fleet.
Raynor examines the varying carbon costs of different hydrogen types—gray, blue, and green—and emphasizes the importance of carefully choosing technologies based on actual benefits. The battery-electric buses offer superior emissions reduction per dollar spent.
23 OCT 2024 · In Episode 38 of Redefining Energy - Tech, Rob Jackson addresses the growing challenge of methane emissions, which are over 90 times more potent than CO2 in the short term. He reveals that two-thirds of methane emissions come from human activities such as fossil fuels, agriculture, and landfills, with livestock, especially cows, being the largest agricultural source. Methane's rapid increase is a major contributor to climate change, and Jackson explores its direct and indirect effects, including its interaction with ozone and how blending hydrogen with natural gas can extend methane's atmospheric lifetime.
Jackson presents several solutions to reduce methane emissions, emphasizing the transition from gas to electric appliances like heat pumps and induction stoves. Regulatory changes and best practices in the oil and gas sector, such as improved methane capture during drilling and better pressure relief systems, are crucial. He also notes the European Union's plan to include methane in its emissions trading system by 2026.
The episode concludes with strategies for agriculture and landfills, including reducing cow populations, using feed additives and vaccines to cut methane from livestock, and preventing organic waste from entering landfills. Jackson advocates for a holistic approach, linking methane reduction to broader climate and health benefits, and highlights clean energy as a critical part of the solution.
9 OCT 2024 · Rob Jackson, Chair of the Global Carbon Project and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute, dives into a critical discussion on methane emissions and their impact on climate change. In this episode of Redefining Energy - Tech, he outlines methane’s potency, noting that it is 80-90 times more effective than CO2 at trapping heat during the first few decades after its release. Methane's role in climate change is not to be underestimated, especially since it makes up the majority of natural gas, which is often marketed as a "clean" fuel.
Jackson raises concerns about methane emissions, particularly in household appliances like gas stoves. These appliances not only leak methane but also release other harmful pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxide and benzene, which pose significant health risks to vulnerable populations, including children and the elderly. He also discusses the widespread leakage that occurs throughout the natural gas supply chain, challenging the perception of natural gas as a clean energy source.
The conversation shifts to the challenges of detecting methane emissions, particularly from oil and gas operations. Jackson highlights advancements in technology, such as satellites, drones, and helicopters, which are used to identify methane super-emitters —large, concentrated leaks of methane. However, pinpointing smaller leaks remains difficult. These advancements, though promising, still face limitations, particularly when it comes to smaller-scale emissions from agriculture or subtle leaks in oil fields.
Jackson stresses the need for a comprehensive approach to methane detection. He calls for integrating multiple types of sensors at different scales to address the full scope of emissions. Despite the improvements in technology, methane emissions from various industries continue to be underestimated. The International Council on Clean Transportation's (ICCT) FUMES project, which found higher-than-expected methane emissions from liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships, and Shell's own internal discoveries of methane leaks from its operations, were part of the discussions.
The episode concludes with a call to action, as Jackson emphasizes the necessity of reducing methane emissions by enhancing detection methods and accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels. He advocates for a multifaceted strategy to address climate change, one that considers not just methane but also the broader implications of fossil fuel reliance.
25 SEP 2024 · In Episode 36 of the "Redefining Energy" series, host Michael Barnard engages Michele Wucker in a nuanced discussion about the complex nature of risk, focusing on the distinction between risk profiles and risk fingerprints.
These fingerprints, shaped by an individual's inherent traits, experiences, and environmental influences, are crucial in understanding how people and organizations perceive and manage risks.
The conversation emphasizes climate change as a significant "gray rhino" that requires strategic, rather than merely tactical, responses. Wucker examines the fossil fuel industry's risk perceptions, considering the potential for these companies to transition into the clean energy sector and exploring the implications of peak oil demand.
The episode also addresses the evolving risk landscape in the wake of COVID-19, highlighting the importance of shared responsibility between individuals and corporations in reducing carbon footprints and adopting sustainable practices. Wucker underscores the need for collaborative efforts and the role of governments in shaping behaviors through policies and incentives. In the final segment, the discussion turns to the equitable distribution of risks and benefits in policy-making, particularly concerning independent workers.
The episode advocates for improved systems to support these workers and stresses the importance of understanding personal risk decisions and their broader impact on society.
11 SEP 2024 · In Episode 35 of "Redefining Energy - Tech," host Michael Barnard engages with Michele Wucker, the author of *The Gray Rhino* and *You Are What You Risk*, in a thought-provoking discussion on risk perception and management. Wucker introduces the concept of the "gray rhino," which symbolizes obvious yet often overlooked risks, in contrast to the "black swan," which represents unforeseeable and improbable events.
The conversation highlights climate change as a prime example of a gray rhino, underscoring the importance of recognizing and responding to such evident threats before they escalate. Wucker shares her background in emerging market debt and sovereign credit risk, providing context for how she developed the gray rhino concept. The discussion explores the historical and societal dimensions of risk perception, with Wucker emphasizing the need for greater awareness and proactive action regarding significant, visible risks like climate change. The episode also examines how human perception of time influences our responses to long-term threats, drawing parallels with the global reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Further into the conversation, Wucker introduces ideas from her book *You Are What You Risk*, including the concepts of "risk fingerprint" and "risk empathy." She discusses how cultural differences, particularly between Eastern and Western societies, shape varying approaches to risk assessment and decision-making. The episode concludes by exploring the interconnectedness of personal, organizational, and governmental decisions in managing obvious risks, highlighting the collective responsibility in addressing gray rhino threats. This episode offers listeners valuable insights into how we can better identify and respond to the risks that are most apparent yet frequently ignored.
28 AUG 2024 · In Episode 34 of the podcast "Redefining Energy Tech" (part 2/2), host Michael Barnard engages with Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, author of "How Big Things Get Done," to delve into the intricacies and strategies of megaprojects, focusing particularly on the comparison between pumped hydro storage and battery systems.
The conversation emphasizes the importance of modularity and repeatability in large-scale projects and highlights various risks associated with construction, including data deficiencies and stakeholder management.
Professor Flyvbjerg introduces the concept of the 'window of doom,' underscoring the necessity of swift project delivery to mitigate risk. The episode explores the advantages of modular construction as evidenced in projects like the Tesla Gigafactory and renewable energy sectors, contrasting these with the prolonged timelines typical of nuclear power plant constructions.
The discussion provides actionable recommendations, urging listeners to review critical risk management heuristics and the variance chart from Flyvbjerg's book. These insights are aimed at enhancing project management practices in infrastructure development.
Listeners are encouraged to understand base rates and project risks, utilize heuristics for successful project management, and consider the significance of the variance chart in Chapter 9 of Flyvbjerg's book. The episode concludes with a call to develop personal heuristics for managing megaprojects effectively.
14 AUG 2024 · Michael Barnard talks with Professor Bent Flyvbjerg (part 1/2), a leading expert on megaprojects and author of "How Big Things Get Done."
Flyvbjerg shares insights from his extensive research, revealing that a staggering 99.5% of projects fail to meet budget, timeline, and benefit expectations. He discusses the critical importance of analyzing successful projects, particularly in the context of renewable energy, where solar and wind initiatives have proven to be more effective than nuclear power.
Flyvbjerg highlights the creation of a database containing over 16,000 megaprojects, which provides a comprehensive overview of the inherent challenges of nuclear energy. These challenges include regulatory hurdles and skill shortages, which contribute to the poor performance of nuclear projects. Additionally, Flyvbjerg explores the concept of small modular reactors as a potential solution to some of these issues, although they also face significant limitations.
Through this discussion, the episode sheds light on the complexities of project management within the energy sector and the factors that lead to successful outcomes. Flyvbjerg emphasizes the importance of studying successful projects to understand how they overcome the odds and achieve their goals. He highlights solar power, wind energy, and transmission as examples of successful project types, contrasting them with poorly performing projects like nuclear power and the Olympic Games.
Overall, the episode provides valuable insights into the dynamics of megaprojects, particularly in the renewable energy sector, and underscores the need for effective project management strategies to ensure success.
24 JUL 2024 · In our latest episode, Host Michael Barnard and Jan Rosenow, European director for RAP, delved into the multifaceted world of heat pumps and their critical role in the energy transition (part 2/2).
Here’s a brief summary of the insightful discussion: We kicked off by exploring the terminology and rising popularity of heat pumps in the media, highlighting their growing presence in publications and public discourse. The conversation then shifted to the marketing and design of heat pumps, emphasizing the need for improved aesthetics and customer experience to make them more appealing.
Efficiency and demand reduction measures were a key focus, with discussions on the potential of insulation and draft proofing to reduce heat demand and enhance property efficiency. We also debated the priority of electrifying heat versus insulation, considering the impact of both strategies on energy use and climate change mitigation.
Heat pumps' dual capability to provide heating and cooling was another highlight, particularly in the context of increasing heat waves. The episode also featured a meta-analysis on hydrogen for heating, revealing that hydrogen is not a scalable or efficient solution compared to alternatives.
The future of gas grids was scrutinized, with discussions on the need for a managed transition away from gas and examples from France and the UK on the rising costs of gas grid maintenance. An orderly regulatory framework for decommissioning gas grids was deemed essential.
We concluded on an optimistic note, drawing parallels to the adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy, and expressing belief in innovation and private equity driving the energy transition.
Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of these vital topics and the steps we can take towards a sustainable future! 🌱💡
17 JUL 2024 · In our latest episode, host Michael Barnard has the pleasure of speaking with Jan Rosenow, who shared incredible insights into energy policy and the critical steps needed for decarbonization. Here’s a brief overview of the key takeaways:
Jan, with his strong background in geosciences and energy policy, highlighted the pivotal role of energy in global carbon emissions. He elaborated on the Regulatory Assistance Project’s (RAP) mission to aid policymakers and regulators in designing more effective energy policies across the US, Europe, China, and India. We delved into RAP's diverse funding sources, including philanthropy, government contracts, and research grants.
A significant portion of our discussion focused on the intricate landscape of EU policy-making. Jan explained the complexities arising from the EU's 27 member states and the collaborative roles of the European Commission, Parliament, and Council. He also touched on the influence of Germany and France on EU energy policies and the ongoing impact of the UK's exit from the EU.
The conversation took an interesting turn as we explored the historical and current hype around hydrogen as a decarbonization solution. Jan provided a critical analysis of hydrogen's realistic applications, the challenges it faces, and the institutional inertia that hampers policy innovation in this area.
Finally, we addressed the crucial topic of decarbonizing building heat. With heating accounting for a significant portion of global carbon emissions, Jan emphasized the need to shift away from fossil fuels. We discussed promising alternatives like biomass, heat pumps, and district heating systems, while expressing skepticism about hydrogen’s viability as a heating solution.
Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of these pressing energy issues and the paths we can take toward a sustainable future. Your feedback and thoughts are always welcome! 🌍💡
Redefining Energy - Tech, a channel of the award-winning Redefining Energy podcast, features deep and broad conversations between global decarbonization leaders and technologists and host Michael Barnard. His informed perspectives...
show more
Redefining Energy - Tech, a channel of the award-winning Redefining Energy podcast, features deep and broad conversations between global decarbonization leaders and technologists and host Michael Barnard.
His informed perspectives on energy, industry and transportation enable him to have intense conversations with brilliant and knowledgeable people.
You’ll be informed, stimulated and amused.
show less
His informed perspectives on energy, industry and transportation enable him to have intense conversations with brilliant and knowledgeable people.
You’ll be informed, stimulated and amused.
Information
| Author | Laurent Segalen + Gerard Reid |
| Organization | Laurent Segalen + Gerard Reid |
| Categories | Technology |
| Website | - |
| info@megawatt-x.com |
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